The situation of the steel market this year is different from previous, traditional demand off-season arrival did not cause too big effect, because of the influence of the low costs and inventory, steel price short-term downside is limited, can predict early November steel prices fly again for a while! As a result, the spiral steel pipe, straight seam steel pipe, steel springboard products prices are going.
Steel market supply and demand in November there was still hope keep good posture, basically have the following reasons:
1, the capacity factor
Recent provinces to work in production on the agenda, on October 29, held in tangshan dissolve excess steel production capacity in October on demolishing, finished the province up to dissolve the steel production tasks this year. Operation, were dismantled the plump, qianan 8 companies nine four of converter or blast furnace burden, dissolve the ironmaking production capacity 4.83 million tons of steel production capacity of 2.9 million tons. Released parts factory shut down after the blast furnace, and the overall out of billet quantity reduced, already in short supply of billet is more short, cause certain influence to the stock.
2, inventory factors
In early October steel inventory and social inventory has fallen sharply, stock fell 113.3 and 902000 tons respectively, to the end of the month continues to decline, infinite close to historic lows. Look from the supply, according to the latest statistics, 164 tangshan steel blast furnace capacity utilization is 76.83%, weeks than fell by 4.88%, with the capacity to further fall to the ground, the development of the environmental supervision, the steel mills cut production maintenance, strained November will exacerbate, balance between supply and demand will be phased order.
3, cost factors
Considering the steel mills coal, coke available inventory days continues to decline, some even only enough to use two or three days, the supply is still tight, there is a slight upward space; in November Catch up market also appears under its impetus, iron ore imports ore in October index gained about $10 / ton, this will encourage steel costs continue to rise. According to ChengShi of iron and steel group, data statistics, as of November 1, the average profit level of the thread is about 70 yuan/ton, profile is still losing money, the average losses of 30 yuan/tons, in social inventory and steel inventories are not high, steel sales, pressure is not big, the high cost can support steel prices continue to strong.
4, macro stabilizing factor
Obvious signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, demand for steel has had a huge impact. September PPI rebounded 0.5%, rose 0.1%, ended 54 months continue to fall. Due to higher commodity prices, laid the foundation for the expansion of enterprise management and earnings upgrades. Three is the enterprise profit improvement. Industrial enterprises above designated size 9 month before total profit year-on-year growth of 8.4%, 2.2% faster than the first half, 7-15.2% growth in August, September state profit up 27% from a year earlier. Corporate earnings improve, provides the power source for promoting investment. Both investment stabilized, and improve corporate profits, were supportive of steel consumption.
To sum up, the steel market in November, the cost and the influence of low inventory, downward space is limited, but, after all, the off-season fell to demand will continue to fall, the extent of upward will also be limited. Taken together, the probability of strong operation is higher, spiral steel pipe, straight seam steel pipe, steel springboard product prices will still be better progressly.
